Due to the recent surge in new Covid-19 cases in Malaysia and the resulting FMCO that followed, Maybank IB Research projected that FY21E Malaysian passenger traffic figures would likely end up below that of FY20. — Bernama photo
KUCHING: The financial year 2021 (FY21) is expected to be another “washout year” for Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB), the research arm of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB Research) opines.
Due to the recent surge in new Covid-19 cases in Malaysia and the resulting Full Movement Control Order (FMCO) that followed, Maybank IB Research projected that FY21E Malaysian passenger traffic figures would likely end up below that of FY20A.
The research arm recalled that first quarter of 2020 (1Q20) Malaysian passenger traffic figures were still respectable at least until the first Movement Control Order (MCO 1.0) took effect on March 18, 2020.
“If one were to annualise the first six months of 2021 (6M21) Malaysian domestic and international passenger traffic figures, it appears to us that FY21E Malaysian domestic and international passenger traffic will come in at only nine per cent and two per cent of FY19A or pre-Covid-19 figures respectively,” Maybank IB Research said.
“On the other hand, 6M21 Turkish domestic and international passenger traffic figures fared a lot better.
“In fact, June 2021 Turkish domestic and international passenger traffic even hit 84 per cent and 53 per cent of June 2019 or pre-Covid-19 figures respectively.”
Maybank IB Research highlighted that on closer inspection, this relatively better performance by MAHB’s Turkish operations is due to the fact that the Covid-19 pandemic has been better contained in Turkey as exhibited by a sharp deceleration in new Covid-19 cases there.
“To be sure, Turkey has gone through multiple lockdowns not unlike Malaysia.
“That said, we notice that new Covid-19 cases there started to decelerate sharply after Covid-19 vaccinations accelerated in May 2021.
“To date, almost 50 per cent of the Turkish population has received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine and 33 per cent of the Turkish population has been fully vaccinated.”
In examining the three countries (the UK, the US and India) that were once dubbed with the ignominious title of being the ‘Covid-19 capital of the world’, Maybank IB Research recalled that all were at one point in time derided for their poor response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
“But note that once Covid-19 vaccinations accelerated, they brought the Covid-19 pandemics in their countries under control.”
As such, the research arm posited the same for Malaysia.
“We acknowledge that there is some ‘perception deficit’ regarding Malaysia’s response to its Covid-19 pandemic but as Covid-19 vaccinations accelerate, new Covid-19 cases here ought to decelerate sharply going forward.”